Eskom is peering into an abyss. Its second batch of diesel is expected to run out at the end of January 2023, write Mariam Isa and Chris Yelland of EE Business Intelligence. | News24_Business
Mariam Isa and Chris Yelland, EE Business IntelligenceEskom is peering into an abyss. Its second batch of diesel is expected to run out at the end of January 2023, write Eskom is living hand-to-mouth in its efforts to obtain the diesel needed to continue running its open-cycle gas turbines , which, in the face of prolonged power generation outages, is the only way the utility can stave off severe and ongoing curtailment of South Africa’s electricity supply.
When you add this large, combined outage to the country’s existing power generation gap of 4 000MW to 6 000MW declared by Eskom more than three years ago – which has still not been addressed – it is clear that South Africa is teetering on the edge of an electricity emergency.
Cassim says that this would cost Eskom another R6 billion. When added to the eleventh hour R3 billion which he has just coughed up, and the previous diesel spend of about R12 billion, the utility’s diesel spend for the full financial year 2022/23 will amount to about R21 billion. This is much more than double that of the 2021/22 financial year, when Eskom spent R8 billion on diesel.
The worst-case scenarios began to rear their head when Eskom was forced to implement Stage 6 load shedding on 11 January 2023 after 11 generation units unexpectedly broke down, taking the total amount of generation capacity offline to more than half of its installed capacity of about 46 000MW.
In reality, Eskom’s system operator implements load shedding to balance supply and demand on the grid, in order to avert a national blackout. The risk of this catastrophe is still seen as slim – provided that Eskom has enough diesel for the OCGTs, as well as other emergency levers at the disposal of the system operator. Eskom’s own OCGT power plants – Ankerlig and Gourikwa – can generate up to 2 067MW of power, which mitigates two stages of load shedding.
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